INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Pax Silica Expands – Gulf States Join U.S.-Led Tech Supply Chain Alliance
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If Gulf states formalize participation in Pax Silica alongside the U.S. and Israel, then the regional supply chain architecture for semiconductors and AI infrastructure begins to reconfigure around non-Asian manufacturing corridors and mineral access points.
INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING: Pax Silica Expands – Gulf States Join U.S.-Led Tech Supply Chain Alliance
Executive Summary:
Qatar and the UAE are formally joining Pax Silica, a U.S.-led coalition to secure AI and semiconductor supply chains, marking a strategic shift from oil dependency to silicon-based economic security. With Israel, Japan, and other allies already onboard, this initiative aims to reshape global tech infrastructure and accelerate regional integration through projects like Fort Foundry One and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor. A pivotal AI memorandum is expected January 16.
Primary Indicators:
- Qatar to sign Pax Silica declaration on January 12, 2026
- UAE to follow on January 15, 2026
- U.S. and Israel to launch 'Fort Foundry One' industrial park and sign AI MOU on January 16, 2026
- Pax Silica includes Israel, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, UK, Australia, and now Gulf states
- Initiative focuses on securing critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and data infrastructure
- Alignment reflects broader economic transition in Gulf away from hydrocarbons
- Coordination with Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh (Jan 13–15) underscores strategic timing
Recommended Actions:
- Monitor developments around the January 16 AI MOU between U.S. and Israel
- Assess investment and partnership opportunities in Fort Foundry One
- Evaluate supply chain implications for semiconductor and AI sectors across the Middle East
- Track expansion of Pax Silica to other regional actors
- Engage with Future Minerals Forum outcomes for critical mineral sourcing strategies
- Analyze potential de-risking of tech infrastructure from rival nation dependencies
Risk Assessment:
The consolidation of a U.S.-aligned tech bloc risks deepening geopolitical bifurcation, potentially isolating non-aligned nations and triggering counter-initiatives by rival powers. As silicon becomes the new strategic currency, disruptions to this emerging architecture—whether through political friction, cyber threats, or supply bottlenecks—could ripple through global AI and semiconductor markets. The quiet alignment of Gulf states with Israel under Pax Silica suggests a tectonic shift, but one that may face internal resistance or external sabotage. This is not merely an economic pact—it is the foundation of a new digital order, forged in silence, and already in motion.
—Marcus Ashworth
Published January 16, 2026