THE LONG VIEW

Russia's Strategic Sabotage: How Moscow Systematically Undermined China's Historical Rise and Development Summary: Sarah Paine's analysis reveals how Russia systematically undermined China's development from the mid-19th century through the Cold War, employing a consistent strategy of territorial acquisition, proxy manipulation, and strategic deception. The lecture traces Russia's exploitation of China's weakness during periods of internal rebellion and external pressure, beginning with the unequal treaties of 1858-1860 that seized territory "greater than all US territory east of the Mississippi." Russia repeatedly positioned itself as a mediator while actually exacerbating China's vulnerabilities - from the Triple Intervention against Japan to Stalin's manipulation of Chinese communist-nationalist relations. The pattern continued through Soviet-era resource extraction from Manchuria and strategic prolonging of the Korean War. Paine identifies key "rules of continental empire" that explain this behavior: avoid two-front wars and prevent great power neighbors. The analysis shows how China eventually recognized this pattern and reversed the power balance through economic growth and nuclear capability, leading to contemporary tensions where China now holds significant leverage over a weakened Russia. Key Points: - Russia acquired Chinese territory equivalent to all US territory east of the Mississippi through unequal treaties - Russia consistently positioned itself as mediator while actually exacerbating China's vulnerabilities - Stalin manipulated Chinese communist-nationalist relations to keep China divided and weak - Soviet forces systematically dismantled 80%+ of Manchuria's industrial base after WWII - Russia prolonged the Korean War to weaken both China and the United States simultaneously - The relationship follows "continental empire" rules: avoid two-front wars, prevent great power neighbors - China reversed the power balance through economic growth and nuclear capability development - Contemporary dynamics show China with 9x Russia's population and GDP, holding significant leverage Notable Quotes: - "If you add up all the territory that the Russians took from the Chinese sphere of influence, it's greater than all US territory east of Mississippi." - "Russia has posed existential threat to its neighbors forever. There are so many neighbors you have never heard of because they disappear from the pages of history courtesy of the Russians." - "Stalin's plan, his script for the Chinese works beautifully because when the nationalists unite with the communists to fight the Japanese, they think he's also gonna provide soldiers. They don't get it. Once they're in, Russia is out of this thing." - "The Russians really understand other people's emotional life and what sets them at odds with each other. And they know just how to serve out the propaganda that sets people at each other's throats." Data Points: - 1858 Treaty of Aigun and 1860 Treaty of Beijing: Russia seized massive Chinese territory - 1919 Karakhan Manifesto: Soviet promise to return territory that was never fulfilled - 1945 Soviet seizure of Manchurian industry: 83% of electrical equipment, 86% of mining equipment, 82% of cement making, 80% of metal working equipment - 640,000 Japanese POWs taken to Soviet labor camps from Manchuria - China's GDP is now 9 times Russia's GDP - Soviet growth rates declined to 1-2% below US rates by the 1970s - Soviet government budgets relied up to 55% on oil/energy revenues Controversial Claims: - Russia deliberately fostered Chinese internal conflicts to keep China weak and divided - Soviet aid to China was consistently calculated to maintain Russian advantage rather than genuine partnership - Contemporary Sino-Russian cooperation is temporary and fundamentally unstable due to historical patterns - Putin's Ukraine invasion represents a strategic blunder that opens Russia to Chinese domination - Communist ideology was always secondary to traditional imperial interests in both countries Technical Terms: - Continental empire principles - Sphere of influence - Buffer states - Unequal treaties - Karakhan Manifesto - United Front (communist-nationalist cooperation) - Comintern (Communist International) - Yalta Agreement terms - Ful-wegg (river border principle) - Third Rome ideology - Belt and Road Initiative Content Analysis: This is a comprehensive historical analysis of Russian-Chinese relations spanning nearly two centuries, focusing on Russia's systematic efforts to undermine China's development and maintain regional dominance. The lecture examines patterns of Russian strategic behavior including territorial acquisition, proxy manipulation, and economic exploitation. Key themes include the "rules of continental empire" (avoiding two-front wars, preventing great power neighbors), Russia's use of China as a buffer and resource, and the shifting power dynamics as China modernized. The analysis connects historical patterns to contemporary geopolitics, particularly regarding Putin's Ukraine invasion and China's Belt and Road initiative. Extraction Strategy: I prioritized extracting the core analytical framework (continental empire principles), historical examples demonstrating Russian strategic behavior, and the chronological progression of the relationship. The strategy focused on identifying key turning points, territorial changes, and strategic manipulations while maintaining the lecturer's critical perspective on Russian imperial behavior. I organized the summary to highlight the cause-effect relationships in the historical narrative while preserving the analytical depth of the original presentation. Knowledge Mapping: This lecture situates Russian-Chinese relations within broader geopolitical theories of continental empires and great power competition. It connects to concepts of buffer states, sphere of influence politics, and the transition from imperial to communist ideologies. The analysis bridges 19th century imperialism, 20th century communist internationalism, and 21st century resource competition. It also relates to theories of dictatorship stability, succession crises, and the relationship between economic development and territorial ambition. The content has significant implications for understanding current Sino-Russian relations and broader Eurasian security dynamics.