THE LONG VIEW

Afghanistan vs. Pakistan: The Escalating Conflict Over the Durand Line and the Threat of Regional War In Plain English: Afghanistan and Pakistan are fighting because Afghanistan’s leaders don’t accept their shared border, which was drawn over 130 years ago by the British. Afghanistan’s rulers believe the border is fake and that parts of Pakistan belong to them, especially areas where ethnic Pashtuns live. At the same time, Pakistan blames Afghanistan for letting militant groups, like the TTP, plan attacks from Afghan soil. These attacks have killed many Pakistani security forces. Now, both sides have launched airstrikes and ground attacks, making the situation worse. This conflict matters because it could spark a bigger regional war, displace more people, and destabilize an already struggling part of the world. Summary: The conflict between Afghanistan’s Taliban government and Pakistan has intensified due to Afghanistan’s rejection of the Durand Line — the internationally recognized border established in 1893 by British colonial authorities. The Taliban, echoing longstanding Afghan nationalist sentiment, views the border as an illegitimate colonial imposition that divided Pashtun communities. Senior Taliban figures have claimed Afghan sovereignty extends deep into Pakistan, including to the Atok Bridge on the Indus River. This irredentist vision aligns with the goals of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an anti-Pakistan militant group that operates with Taliban support in eastern Afghanistan, particularly in Kunar and Nangarhar provinces. Despite denials, evidence suggests the Taliban provides the TTP with weapons, training, and safe havens, and TTP leaders have appeared at official events in Kabul. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of enabling terrorism, citing over 2,600 security personnel killed in TTP attacks since 2020. In response, Pakistan has conducted cross-border airstrikes, including in March 2024 and December 2024, targeting TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. The situation escalated in October 2025, when a TTP ambush killed 11 Pakistani troops, prompting Pakistani airstrikes and direct retaliation from Afghan Taliban forces — marking the first major military engagement between the two states since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Weeks of intense fighting followed, with both sides claiming territorial gains and heavy enemy casualties, though verification is difficult due to media restrictions. A ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey in October 2025 remains fragile, as sporadic clashes continue. Internal divisions within the Taliban limit its ability to control the TTP without risking internal backlash. The humanitarian crisis has worsened, with over 2 million Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan and Iran since 2025, overwhelming Afghanistan’s already collapsed economy. Regional powers are taking sides: China and Saudi Arabia support Pakistan, Qatar mediates, India sees strategic opportunity, and the U.S. may re-engage under Trump’s foreign policy. The Taliban’s omission of Kashmir in its territorial claims, while aligning with India, suggests a possible strategic shift. The conflict reflects deeper issues of colonial legacy, ethnic nationalism, and state fragility, with the potential to spiral into a broader regional war. Key Points: - The Taliban government rejects the Durand Line as a legitimate border, calling it a colonial imposition. - Afghanistan supports the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which carries out attacks against Pakistani security forces. - Since 2021, the Taliban has allowed TTP militants to operate freely in eastern Afghanistan. - Pakistan has responded with cross-border airstrikes, including in 2024 and 2025. - In October 2025, direct fighting erupted between Afghan Taliban forces and Pakistani military units. - Over 2 million Afghan refugees have been deported from Pakistan and Iran since 2025. - A ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey in October 2025 remains unstable. - The TTP seeks to unite Pashtun-majority areas in Pakistan with Afghanistan. - The Taliban’s territorial vision includes access to the Indus River and the Arabian Sea via Balochistan. - Regional powers like India, China, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. have strategic interests in the outcome. Notable Quotes: - "Afghanistan's rulers say their border with Pakistan doesn't exist. They call the current demarcation imaginary." - "The Durand line between Afghanistan and Pakistan was imposed by force and that the Taliban seeks to reclaim the usurped territories." - "For centuries, Afghanistan buried empires that sought to conquer it. Yet now, in chasing the ghosts of lost glory, it risks joining them in the same soil." - "Ordinary people rarely get to decide their fate when caught in the gears of geopolitics." - "Enchasing imaginary lines, Afghanistan risks crossing a very real one, the line between power and ruin." Data Points: - The Durand Line was drawn in 1893. - Over 2 million Afghan refugees have been deported from Iran and Pakistan since 2025 (some estimates: 3.4 million). - More than 2,600 Pakistani security personnel have been killed in TTP attacks over the past four years. - Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan in March 2024 and December 2024. - Major clashes occurred between Afghan Taliban and Pakistani forces in October 2025. - A ceasefire was brokered on October 19, 2025, by Qatar and Turkey. - The Bruce Jack Mine, near Dolly Vardensilver, sold for $3.5 billion in 2022 (contextual, not conflict-related). - Dolly Vardensilver raised $30 million and grew from a $20 million to a $500 million market cap (contextual, not conflict-related). Controversial Claims: - The Taliban seeks to reclaim large portions of Pakistan, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, based on ethnic Pashtun unity. - The Afghan Interior Ministry officially stated that the Durand Line was imposed by force and that Afghanistan aims to reclaim "usurped territories." - The Taliban’s reimagined map of Afghanistan, extending to the Indus River, deliberately excludes Kashmir, suggesting a strategic alliance with India against Pakistan. - Pakistan’s national stability could be undermined by internal ethnic dissent if Pashtun or Baloch populations align with Afghan irredentist goals. - The U.S., under Trump, may re-engage militarily in the region due to interest in airbases and regional influence. Technical Terms: - Durand Line - Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) - Irredentism - Cross-border militancy - Sovereignty - Safe havens - Counterterrorism operation - Geopolitical alignment - Ethnic nationalism - State fragility - Refugee repatriation - Unilateral military action - Mediation diplomacy - Regional security landscape - Jihadist ecosystem —Marcus Ashworth