THE LONG VIEW

The most successful imperial strategy isn't conquest—it's convincing your victim you're their savior while systematically undermining them. Russia mastered this against China across seven generations: offering to "mediate" British-French attacks while annexing territory; promising to "return" concessions while extending them; funding both sides of civil wars to ensure mutual exhaustion. Each betrayal followed the same rhythm: identify Chinese vulnerability (Opium Wars, Japanese expansion, Communist isolation), pose as indispensable ally, extract maximum geopolitical rent. The genius lay not in the deception itself—every empire practices this—but in maintaining the "friendship" narrative long after the knife was visible. Even Mao, who recognized the pattern by 1958, couldn't break free: he still needed Soviet technology to build the bomb that would finally secure China against future Siberian scripts. This is continental realism stripped bare: geography trumps ideology, weakness invites systematic predation, and yesterday's "brotherly assistance" becomes tomorrow's territorial claim.