THE LONG VIEW

In 1956, when British and French forces invaded Egypt during the Suez Crisis, they expected American backing—but instead, President Eisenhower condemned the action and forced a humiliating withdrawal. That moment shattered the illusion of Anglo-French great power status and taught a generation of Middle Eastern leaders: trust in Western security guarantees is conditional, fleeting, and often sacrificed at the altar of larger geopolitical calculations. Fast forward to 2025, when Israel struck Qatari soil—a non-NATO ally mediating between Hamas and Tel Aviv—and the U.S. remained silent. For Saudi Arabia, this was Suez all over again: a signal that even close allies are expendable when great powers realign. Just as Nasser turned to the Soviet Union after Suez, MBS has now turned to Pakistan. The difference? This time, the alternative deterrent isn’t ideological—it’s nuclear. The 1998 Pakistani nuclear tests, conducted amid economic collapse and U.S. sanctions, were saved not by diplomacy, but by Saudi oil credits. That financial lifeline, extended when Riyadh itself faced $10 oil prices, forged a bond deeper than any treaty. Now, two decades later, that quiet bailout has matured into a mutual defense pact—one that quietly places Saudi Arabia under the shadow of Pakistani warheads. This isn’t just a new alliance; it’s the payoff of a debt settled in strategic trust. And like all great historical pivots, it was not announced with fanfare, but whispered in the silence after a bombing raid no one thought possible. —Marcus Ashworth Dispatch from Moves S2